U.N. weapon inspections in Iraq: Path to peace or way to war?

Issue

Background

If nothing else, Resolution 1441 seems to have pulled the United States back from the brink of war with Iraq -- at least for the moment. Most analysts view the resolution as a victory for a multi-lateral approach to Iraq and as placing some restraints on the United States -- which has a stated policy of overthrowing the Iraqi government and has frequently threatened military action.

The inspectors are to report any Iraqi noncompliance with the terms of 1441 to the U.N. Security Council. The Security Council -- not the United States alone -- would then determine whether Iraq's actions constitute a "material breach." If so, the Security Council would determine what "serious consequences" would be leveled against Iraq, including the possibility of authorizing military force. The United States could choose to side-step this U.N. process and begin military strikes, but it would do so without Security Council authorization and would risk heavy criticism by other countries.

While the Bush administration has publicly supported Resolution 1441, it also: almost daily threatens to use force if necessary and continues to amass troops in the Gulf region; is actively seeking coalition partners for a military action against Iraq; and has already declared that Iraq is in "material breach" for firing on U.S. military jets patrolling the U.S./British-designated "no-fly" zones in Iraq. If the United States allows the U.N. process to play out, it will be a tight squeeze to execute a military campaign during the "optimal window" which closes when the weather in Iraq turns hot in early March. The first official inspectors' report to the Security Council isn't due until 60 days after full-scale inspections begin in December.

Reflection

Resolution 1441 offers a hopeful and peaceful way forward. Unfortunately, the current U.S. approach features heavy sticks but offers few carrots for Iraqi compliance. The Bush administration must stop making threats and do all that it can to help the inspections process succeed.

Action

1. Disarmament is the right goal. Let's help it succeed!

- Offer the Iraqi government incentives to cooperate. The Bush administration should publicly announce that it: a) seeks Iraq's disarmament, not regime change; b) will seek the immediate lifting of sanctions as soon as Iraq complies with the U.N. resolutions; c) will throw its full support behind the goal of ridding the entire Middle East of weapons of mass destruction; d) will stop arming Iraq's neighbors.

- Lead by example. The United States publicly declare its commitment to destroying its own weapons of mass destruction. It is hypocritical to demand that other countries disarm when the world's only superpower insists on holding on to its own weapons of mass destruction.

3. War is not the answer. Even if Iraq fails to fully comply with the inspections process, war is not a viable alternative. There are less violent alternatives (e.g. diplomatic engagement, arms embargoes) for containing those who have or seek to gain weapons of mass destruction. War will cause heavy civilian and military casualties and lead to extensive postwar suffering due to Iraq's already fragile infrastructure. War sends the wrong signal to people in the volatile Middle East. Many wonder why the United States seems bent on war-making in Iraq while the U.S. commitment to peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis seems to be waning. Furthermore, preemptive military strikes set a dangerous example for the rest of the world.

Addresses